Dearborn, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

839
FXUS63 KDTX 070005
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
705 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog will impact portions of the area into tonight.

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening,
then again on Saturday. THere is a low risk of severe weather with
these storms.

- Warm and windy on Saturday with southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45
MPH.

- Above average temperatures are expected through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR/IFR ceilings and visibility is holding strong early this
evening. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms approaches
from the west with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead
of it. Currently just scattered showers across southeast Michigan to
start the TAF period with continued fog. Expectation is for this
first line of showers and embedded thunderstorms to move across the
area through about 03-07Z as warm sector makes inroads across the
south tonight. LLWS concerns remain into tonight with weak surface
winds and strong low level jet aloft. Warm sector should eventually
improve visibility and raise ceilings with a break in precipitation
during most of the early morning hours. Next round of showers and
thunderstorms arrives after 12Z tomorrow morning ahead of a cold
front. Line of showers/thunderstorms will move into MBS around 13Z
and spread across the remaining terminals throughout the morning.
Winds become very gusty to 30-35 knots late tomorrow morning as
system rolls thorough. Stronger storm potential ends during the
early afternoon with gusty west winds to around 25 knots through the
rest of the afternoon tomorrow.

For DTW... Persistent LIFR ceiling/visibility is the primary weather
concern for the next few hours this evening. Showers increase across
the area while thunderstorm coverage remains low overhead or
directed father north into the early part of tonight. Stronger
thunderstorm potential will begin around 14-15Z tomorrow morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

* High for ceiling and visibility below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM this
  evening. Low tonight

* Low for thunderstorms at DTW this evening. Moderate mid-morning
  tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

DISCUSSION...

The cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms now advancing across
the Saginaw Valley are tied to a mid level short wave impulse along
the leading edge of a plume of elevated instability. A stronger wave
tracking into central Lake Michigan this afternoon will track across
nrn Lower Mi this evening. The trailing moist axis combined with the
advection of weak elevated inability ongoing across srn Mi will
support additional convective development this evening. A strong warm
front positioned along the MI/OH border will slowly be drawn
northward during the night under increasing southerly flow preceding
a surface wave lifting across the western Great Lakes. The warm
sector south this boundary is characterized by sfc temps in the 70s
and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Weak sfc based cape within this
warm sector will attempt to push into Lenawee/Washtenaw counties this
evening prior to nocturnal cooling, at least increasing the risk of
a severe storm given the strong wind fields. Otherwise, evening
convection will largely be elevated atop a very stable boundary
layer, suggestive of hail as the main severe weather concern. With
upper 50/lower 60 degree sfc dewpoints advecting into Se Mi along the
warm front, areas of dense fog are likely to persist prior to the
arrival of the warm sector, especially within the Lake Erie/St Clair
marine layer. The northward advancing warm front will also lead to
rising temps during the night.

An approaching upper level trough axis will drive an associated cold
front across Se Mi late Saturday afternoon. There is strong
agreement among hi res guidance and ensemble members indicating lead
short wave features driving another round of convective Saturday
morning. The coverage and duration of this will determine severe
convective chances and wind gust potential later in the day. Ample
warm moist air will remain in place in advance of the cold front,
easily supporting highs in the 60s. A strongly sheared environment
will remain in place. At this point, it is questionable at to
whether there will be enough surface based instability to balance
the shear, especially if early day convection becomes a little more
widespread. For this reason, most of Se Mi remains in a marginal
risk for severe wx. Daytime mixing potential will also support windy
conditions. Available probabilistic guidance suggests enough
uncertainty as to whether mixing depths adequately reach into the 40-
45 knot low level wind fields to hold off on advisory criteria wind
gusts attm.

Respectable yet shallow post frontal cold air advection will drive
temps into the 30s Sun night. Rebounding mid level heights and
steady warm air advection within west-southwest winds will result in
a steady warming trend Sunday into Monday under dry conditions.
Highs in the 60s look highly probably on Monday, with some ensemble
members still indicating a few locals reaching 70.

MARINE...

Ongoing progression of a warm front across the Great Lakes will
continue to advect in higher surface moisture and given ongoing
dense fog across Lake Erie and Lake St Clair and factoring in
expanding moisture, have opted to expand the marine dense fog
advisory across all of Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay and extend the
ongoing advisory for locations south. Some improvement with
visibilities will be possible with any rain showers, however,
widespread improvement to conditions will be more likely with the
passage of a cold front which will move across the Great Lakes
through tomorrow afternoon.

Widespread rain showers with a low chance for some embedded
thunderstorms will move in this evening across Lake Huron. A lull in
activity overnight, with a second round of rain showers and
thunderstorms chances expected through tomorrow morning ahead and
along the cold front. There will be a low-end chance for gusts to
reach gales along and immediately behind the cold front tomorrow
afternoon, but given the brevity for gale potential, will preclude
and issuance of gale products. Any stronger thunderstorms will have
the capability to produce gusts in excess of 34 knots.

Some additional low end chances for gust to gales will be possible
Sunday morning and afternoon, but a near neutral thermal profiles
brings low confidence if stronger winds aloft will make it to the
surface. A strong warm front then pushes through Monday morning,
which will bring breezy southwest flow with gusts around 30 knots.

HYDROLOGY...

Probabilities show two time periods with the greatest/more
widespread rain potential; this evening and then again Saturday
morning. 12-hour rain totals are most likely to fall into the one
quarter to three quarters inch range. Some totals up to an inch are
possible across the Saginaw Valley and thumb regions. While this
will result in rises on area rivers, no flooding is forecast.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ063-069-070-076.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ075-083.

Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422-
     441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AA
HYDROLOGY....SC


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